Lowetide: Predicting Oilers star Connor McDavids 2023-24 stats

Posted by Christie Applegate on Monday, May 6, 2024

The Edmonton Oilers enjoyed another strong season in 2022-23, and several of the team’s best players achieved new statistical plateaus.

Connor McDavid delivered career highs in goals (64, 20 more than his previous high) and points (153, an incredible 30-point increase). His 89 assists increased that count by 10 season over season.

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Can he do it again? Can he push even higher?

He scored 21-50-71 in 322 power-play minutes, and as long as the power play is rolling at a record rate, his boxcars are going to be ridiculous.

The five-on-five scoring a year ago included a career high in goals (32, second in the NHL). His 59 points landed him fourth among NHL players.

Team goals

A key story in 2022-23 was the five-on-five outscoring by the team with McDavid on and off the ice.

Scoring with 97 at rest has been a problem since the captain arrived in 2015.

It was a watershed season coming in 2022-23. After years of finishing below 50 percent in goal share with McDavid off the ice (only once getting close), it all came together this season.

YearMcDavid OnMcDavid Off

2015-16

36-35 (50.7%)

98-135 (42%)

2016-17

77-47 (62.1%)

89-93 (48.9%)

2017-18

81-61 (57%)

82-115 (41.6%)

2018-19

77-75 (50.7%)

69-103 (40.1%)

2019-20

62-58 (51.7%)

79-99 (44.4%)

2020-21

64-48 (57.1%)

51-68 (42.9%)

2021-22

73-50 (59.4%)

108-123 (46.8%)

2022-23

75-62 (54.7%)

116-106 (52.3%)

All numbers five-on-five

This is a terrific result for the organization. The 2021-22 overall goal share (51.1 percent, 181-173) was much improved in 2022-23 (191-168, 53.2 percent).

However, regression hit McDavid in 2022-23. His goal share fell to 54.7 percent. It’s a strong total but ranked No. 119 among NHL forwards.

In 2021-22, he was No. 51 across the NHL.

What happened? As the numbers above show, Edmonton was allowing more goals when the captain was on the ice at five-on-five. The increase in goals-against per 60 (from 2.26 to 2.84) was significant and it gives the Oilers something to work on in the coming season.

Comparing the two seasons gives us some insight into what happened at five-on-five.

StatMcDavid 2021-22McDavid 2022-23

Goals-60

.99

1.47

Points-60

2.62

2.71

Shots-60

9.35

9.59

ShootingPct

10.6

15.3

Goal Share

59.4

54.7

X-Goal Share

59

57.7

Shot Share

57

53.5

SA-60

30.1

31.3

GA-60

2.26

2.84

X-GA-60

2.43

2.57

HDCA-60

11.3

10.7

On-ice Sh Pct

8.3

9.6

On-ice Sv Pct

0.925

0.909

All numbers five-on-five

This is good information and confirms the eye test. McDavid was shooting about as often, but scoring more goals (increased shooting percentage). He was more aggressive (selfish) this season, with more torque on his shot. It is a repeatable skill, and even with regression fans should expect more five-on-five goals than his career average (25 per 82 games excluding 2022-23, when he scored 32 in 82 games).

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His expected goal share was close to last year’s total, but his shot share was off the pace and the on-ice save percentage was far below 2021-22. McDavid’s line would have surrendered 11 fewer goals with the 2021-22 goaltending tandem (Mike Smith, Mikko Koskinen, Stuart Skinner).

Bottom line: Some erosion in shot share, but the major culprit was goaltending while 97 was on the ice.

Injured linemates and a late spike

Evander Kane’s injury led to an unsuccessful experience with McDavid (9-16 goals at five-on-five together), but those totals are unlikely to repeat themselves if Kane returns to full health.

One of the key developments in McDavid’s season was the enormous performance spike when Mattias Ekholm arrived. In just 177 minutes together, the tandem outscored opponents 16-2 (89 percent) in a breathtaking romp through the spring.

McDavid-Ekholm replaced 97-Darnell Nurse (24-30, 44 percent) after the trade deadline, and the impact was massive.

Expect more of Ekholm-Bouchard with the No. 1 line in 2023-24.

Can he do it again?

In terms of scoring and outscoring, McDavid is in a good position to improve both totals next season. His record-breaking campaign came while playing with an injured Kane and an ineffective and recovering Kailer Yamamoto.

The results of the top three lines he played on reflect the issue.

WingersMinutesGoal Share

Draisaitl-Hyman

300

28-14 (67 pct)

Nuge-Hyman

208

16-10 (62 pct)

Kane-Yamamoto

93

1-3 (25 pct)

McDavid’s chemistry with Zach Hyman in 2022-23 was exceptional, and both Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also had success.

Kane and Yamamoto were the outliers. Kane is signed long-term at a handsome number, but the team may decide to replace Yamamoto to both conserve dollars and add a bigger body on right wing.

Both should benefit scoring and outscoring.

McDavid’s scoring success by discipline

The numbers you’re about to view are ridiculous, but true. McDavid’s scoring at even strength outside five-on-five is like a magic trick, and in 2022-23 he decided to punish opponents while on the penalty kill. It’s otherworldly.

Game State2021-222022-23

Five-on-Five

22 goals, 58 points

32 goals, 59 points

TOI

1328 mins

1308 mins

Pts-60

2.62

2.71

Even Strength

12 goals, 20 points

6 goals, 15 points

TOI

120 mins

101 mins

Pts-60

10

8.93

Power Play

10 goals, 44 points

21 goals, 71 points

TOI

298 mins

322 mins

Pts-60

8.86

13.23

Penalty kill

one assist

4 goals 7 points

TOI

18 mins

105 mins

Pts-60

3.29

4.01

McDavid has been healthy in recent seasons, and the Oilers are a good team.

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The goaltending should be better, and Kane’s better health plus an upgrade in the Yamamoto spot should mean more scoring and outscoring.

On the other hand, the 2022-23 power play and penalty kill totals border on farce and are unlikely to be duplicated next season.

Before the prediction, a quick note on the model. It’s directly lifted from Bill James’ baseball model in his annual abstracts.

He used three seasons, I’m using two because of the uniqueness of the 2020-21 campaign.

Can he push even higher? 

Based on his age, special status as a supernova hockey player and the roster improvements that should arrive this summer, McDavid’s scoring projection is as follows:

Game StateMinutesNumbers

Five-on-Five

1350

27 goals, 61 points

Even Strength

120

9 goals 19 points

Power Play

300

15 goals, 57 points

Penalty Kill

40

1 goal, 3 points

Total

1810

52 goals, 140 points

Five-on-Five Goal Share

75-55, 58 pct

McDavid will likely exceed these numbers. My reasonable expectations series has been chasing his offensive prowess for years, and he has exceeded the prediction in three of the last four seasons.

YearNumbersPts-Game

2019-20 prediction

48-66-114

1.46

2019-20 actual

41-75-116

1.49

2020-21 prediction

31G, 87 PTS

1.54

2020-21 actual

33G, 105 PTS

1.88

2021-22 prediction

50G, 143 PTS

1.79

2021-22 actual

44G, 123 PTS

1.54

2022-23 prediction

48G, 134 PTS

1.63

2022-23 actual

64G, 153 PTS

1.86

2023-24 prediction

52G, 140 PTS

1.73

2023-24 actual

?

?

Much can change over the summer, it’s possible Edmonton hits a home run and brings in another impact winger. It’s also possible the Yamamoto replacement is less effective.

No matter the summer movement, McDavid’s extreme offence is something the Oilers can count on in the 2023-24 season.

Could this season result in Stanley visiting Edmonton for the first time in 34 summers?

The McDavid prediction suggests a slight downbeat in special teams offence, a surge in five-on-five points and outscoring.

That would be an ideal solution for an Oilers team that is so close to winning it all.

(Photo: Perry Nelson / USA Today)

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