
Well kids, this is it. It’s the final week of the fantasy regular season in most leagues. And it’s, therefore, the final week of Drops this season at The Athletic.
Stop clapping. Y’all are just mean.
For quite a few fantasy managers, the fantasy playoffs have already essentially started. The edict this week is simple — win and you move on. Lose, and you’re fresh out of excuses to hold off on hanging Christmas lights.
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That means that with every player on your roster, you need to ask yourself a question — a question you probably should have been asking for a couple of weeks now: is there a realistic chance I’m going to start this player over the next few weeks?
If there isn’t, there is no point in rostering them. Not now. Not unless that player is a reserve who can save your proverbial bacon if a starter goes down — right now a lot of Rhamondre Stevenson managers are wishing they hadn’t dropped Ezekiel Elliott for the flavor of the week several weeks back.
You can’t even blame me for that one — Elliott was never listed in this column.
Before I start giving people cause to yell at me in the comments (which I actually do read most weeks), one more note — just because a player is listed here doesn’t mean I think everyone should drop them. If your running backs are a mess, you probably shouldn’t drop any with a pulse. Players are listed here because, to a significant extent, they have become expendable. Their situation has changed to the point where you may just be able to do better on the wire.
And I’ll freely admit that I tried to include players rostered in enough leagues to make things interesting. A weekly list of scrubs rostered in 10 percent of leagues would be boring.
And if there’s one thing I didn’t want this to be, it was boring. Informative? I hope so. Useful? At least marginally. Entertaining? Absolutely. We play fantasy football because it’s fun — even if this time of year it’s the kind of “fun” that gives you palpitations.
I hope you enjoyed the column. I hope to be able to write it again in 2024. And I guarantee a couple of this week’s names will get the comments a churnin’.
(Rostered Percentage Courtesy of Yahoo)
Joshua Dobbs, QB, Minnesota Vikings (45 Percent—Droppable in 12-Team Leagues)
Remember when Dobbs was an awesome feel-good story? The aerospace engineer quarterback who led the Vikings to a pair of victories in three games despite barely having gotten to the Twin Cities? He was the toast of the town. Parades were planned. Statues commissioned. Then Dobbs threw four interceptions against the Chicago Bears, and there was talk coming out of the bye that he’d be benched, although Dobbs told reporters he wasn’t letting the outside chatter get to him.
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“Honestly, I think that’s a coaching decision, but, no I don’t (listen),” Dobbs said. “I just focus on myself, focus on how I can help this team win, focus on how I can be a better teammate, a better quarterback and focus on how I can make sure the offense is in the right play based on the scenario to go out and execute and play at a high level.”
Dobbs is a mobile quarterback, and we all know how much fantasy managers love mobile quarterbacks. He’s going to have Justin Jefferson at his disposal for the first time in Week 14. And make no mistake, Dobbs will start, because Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens are Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens. But the problem is that Dobbs just, um, isn’t great. He’s prone to bad decisions with the ball. And if he struggles against the Raiders, the hook is coming.
Your quarterback sitting in the second quarter is not ideal in a must-win game.
Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens (83 Percent — Droppable in Shallow 12-Team Leagues)
That’s right. I said it.
Edwards has been quite the find for fantasy managers in 2023. At times this season, the 28-year-old has anchored the NFL’s No. 1 rushing attack. Edwards has 10 scores and was fantasy football’s No. 2 running back from Week 7 to Week 11. And were it up to him, he told reporters that he would be a bell-cow back for the Ravens each and every week.
“I’m ready for it if that’s what the coaches [decide], and that’s what the game plan is about,” he said. “I’m hoping that I get a big load each week. Running back, it’s kind of like a rhythm position, so the more carries you get, the more rhythm you get, and the hotter you get. You kind of get going, so that does help the confidence, and that does help you flowing through the game.”
However, that was then—and this is now. And in the now, the Ravens are becoming Keaton Mitchell’s backfield. In Week 12, Mitchell out-snapped, out-touched and out-performed Edwards. Most importantly, Edwards didn’t get the goal-line touchdown that his fantasy value has been so reliant on. Some fantasy managers will have no choice but to go the feast/famine route in the backfield. But I’d swap Edwards for the touches I’m confident Elliott or Chuba Hubbard will get right now.
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Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans (84 Percent — Droppable in Shallow 12-Team Leagues)
Not that long ago, this call would have gotten readers every bit as riled up as suggesting that Gus Edwards isn’t a must-hold.
It’s Christmas, folks. Think happy thoughts!
In both Week 10 and Week 11, with Dameon Pierce on the shelf, Singletary surpassed 20 carries, eclipsed 100 yards and found the end zone. Over that stretch, Singletary was third in PPR points among running backs, and Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans has made it no secret that he very much wants to get the run game going in Houston.
“I think I voiced many times how important the run game is,” Ryans told reporters. “Like when you stay on schedule in the run games, how much that opens up play-pass and stuff, that it’s going to be more guys in protection, it’s going to be sounder in protection… Any time you can keep the defense off-balance, and they’re not sure what you’re going to play or what you’re going to run, that’s always going to be the hardest for them.”
The problem is that Pierce came back — and the Houston ground game devolved into a muddy mess again. Last week, Pierce had almost twice as many carries as Singletary, despite the latter being more effective on a per-touch basis. Nine touches for 40 yards isn’t getting it done, and there’s no reason to think (barring another injury) that Singletary is suddenly going to see more work.
In short, Dameon Pierce is ruining Christmas. It’s really quite rude.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts (63 Percent — Droppable in 12-Team Leagues)
Like the rest of the players in this week’s finale (I wanted explosions, giant robots and a cliffhanger ending, but there were um, budgetary concerns), Downs had his moments this season — as recently as Week 12 he drew 13 targets against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In fact, Colts general manager Chris Ballard went so far as to compare Downs to TY Hilton — which is high praise in Indianapolis.
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“TY probably had the best instincts of any player I’ve been around in my career, the kid just knew how to play the game, Ballard said during a podcast appearance. Josh has got some of that in him. He’s got tremendous instincts and feel for the game.”
The problem with Downs isn’t talent — it’s that at this crucial juncture in the fantasy calendar, his production is trending in the wrong direction. That 13-target game against Tampa translated into just five catches for 43 yards. Last week against the Titans, Downs caught three of five targets for 14 yards. 11 catches for 107 yards is a great stat line for a game; but it’s Downs’ production over the past month.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons (88 Percent — Droppable in 12-Team Leagues)
There is no better place to finish up the final edition of Drops than in the soul-sucking fantasy void from which no joy can escape — the Atlanta Falcons’ offense. To be fair, after last week’s win over the New York Jets, wideout Drake London admitted that both the weather and Ahmad Gardner’s coverage played parts in his pedestrian statistical effort.
“The competitor in me absolutely wants the ball,” London said. “Everyone wants their time at some point. It comes down to understanding how the game is going. You can’t get frustrated by it. We got the win. We are all about stacking these wins right now. If the ball isn’t coming to me as much when we win, I have to be understanding. Our team is focused on winning.”
The problem is that weather or no, some Falcons player is making some permutation of that statement every week because Arthur Smith has an offense loaded with firepower and apparently no earthly idea of how to utilize it. Or he secretly hates scoring points. Whatever. London has seven PPR points once in the last three weeks and ranks 43rd in fantasy points among receivers for the season.
Bijan Robinson is the only Falcons player I’d start in the playoffs — and that’s knowing that on first and goal from the three-yard line Smith will call a run for Tyler Allgeier, an end-around for Jonnu Smith and a fade route for Sal the popcorn vendor.
Gary Davenport means no offense to Sal the popcorn vendor. Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks.
(Top photo: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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